How Should Foreign Trade Enterprises Adjust Their Strategies?
On June 25, 2025, China’s General Administration of Customs released data showing a significant decline in low-value small parcel exports to the United States in May. Year-on-year, exports plummeted by 39%, and month-on-month, they dropped by a staggering 53%, with export value falling to RMB 7.84 billion — the lowest level since early 2023. In stark contrast, China’s small parcel exports to the rest of the world saw a 42% year-on-year increase.
Structural Divergence Amid Global Growth
The global market landscape is undergoing a major reshaping:
Malaysia has overtaken the U.S. to become the largest single-country destination for Chinese small parcel exports. The U.S. has fallen to second place, followed by Singapore, Belgium, the U.K., Hungary, South Korea, and France.
A Tale of Two Markets: Booming Growth and Sudden Decline
The 42% global increase in small parcel exports may seem encouraging on the surface, but it actually reveals a deeper trend of “fragmentation” and “redistribution” in China’s cross-border e-commerce landscape. For some businesses, this signals an opportunity to overtake competitors; for others, it may be a warning sign of marginalization.
The sudden cooling of the U.S. market is a well-known reality in the industry. After policy changes in the U.S., SHEIN and Temu saw their weekly sales drop by 23% and 17%, respectively. Many sellers who heavily relied on the U.S. market have reported order volumes plunging by up to 50% — some even to zero. For sellers who were previously profiting through platform-managed fulfillment and tax-free policies on small parcels, this shift felt like going from “being fed” to having their “supply cut off” overnight.
What’s even more alarming is that this pressure is not unique to the U.S. The EU and Japan have also followed suit, planning to impose standardized fees on parcels from China. This indicates a systemic erosion of the cost advantages that small parcel exports once depended on.
Meanwhile, markets such as Malaysia, France, and Singapore are seeing rapid growth, representing another kind of “China speed.” With the U.S. down 39% and global exports up 42%, the structural divergence is clear — and businesses must reassess their global strategy.
Five Proven Transformation Paths
In the face of market divergence, only clear direction and solid execution can help businesses capture growth in emerging markets. Based on public industry data and deep conversations with practitioners over the past three months, here are five verified transformation strategies for your reference:
1. **Timely Market Reallocation: Focus on Emerging Markets**
Quickly shift resources and attention to markets showing high growth potential.
2. **Business Model Upgrade: Take Control of Profit Margins**
Move beyond low-margin bulk selling; develop your own brand and pricing power.
3. **Local Warehousing: Optimize Landing Costs and User Experience**
In markets imposing extra fees like the U.S., setting up local warehouses is key to reducing long-term costs and improving customer satisfaction.
4. **Diversify Channels: Build a Resilient Network**
Avoid over-reliance on a single platform or market. Adopt a multi-channel, multi-market approach to spread risk. For mid-sized businesses, this structural diversification is particularly valuable.
5. **Deep Localization: Fine-Tuned Country-Specific Operations**
Gaining deep insights into target markets and tailoring operations accordingly is crucial to winning in emerging regions. Take Malaysia’s 2022 boom as an example — it was fueled by tariff benefits under RCEP, improved logistics infrastructure, and a deep understanding of local consumption habits for home goods and 3C products. Exporters must move beyond macro-level data and adopt precise, localized strategies for operations and product offerings.
Deeper Lessons Behind the Growth
This dramatic shift in small parcel export performance — both positive and negative — serves as a “comprehensive health check” for Chinese exporters:
* Are you overly reliant on a single platform?
* Have you put all your eggs in the U.S. basket?
* Do you truly control core capabilities like selecting freight forwarders, efficient customs clearance, and local warehouse management?
* Can your profits be traced back to real product value?
The 42% global growth clearly signals that opportunities still abound. But these opportunities will not be evenly distributed. The real growth dividends will go to companies that can keenly detect trends, pivot quickly, and iterate continuously.
Ultimately, platforms are tools — not a lifeline. The U.S. is an important entry point, but it is not the whole map.
In Xiaohang’s view, if the era before 2023 was a “wild west” where anyone could go global, then post-2025 will be a time that tests who can **stably hold their course** and survive the waves.